Video Age International October 2015

58 medical professionals are in the same boat as any other analyst. An example is the warning that my primary physician, a cardiologist, gave me: “Research indicated that eating two eggs per week is now considered healthy, but do it fast before we change our mind.” In conclusion, making predictions without taking into consideration future technology (that right nowwe can only imagine), utilizing toomuch futuristic technology, being caught in the midst of a fast-evolving technology or not considering possible new regulations, will ultimately produce inaccurate predictions. But that’s no reason to stop making them, as long as we understand that there is only a 50-50 chance of accuracy. It’s just like advertising, which is projected to have 50 percent waste, though it is not known which 50 percent. After all, the Palo Alto, California-based Foresight Institute has made several erroneous predictions over the years about everything. A final note: The headline above was inspired by the retired, great Yankees catcher, Yogi Berra, who actually said: “Baseball is 90 percent mental and the other half is physical.” And regarding the future: “You’ve got to be very careful if you don’t know where you are going, because you might not get there.” U nderstanding the past is just as complicated as predicting the future. Historians and film and TV producers make money from both. Conference organizers profit only from the future and, for publications, the mysterious past and the unpredictable future fill up their pages. The future of over-the-air (OTA) television is increasingly discussed around the world. My prediction is that free-to-air (FTA) television will remain in 2030. BlairWestlake, whose predictions are on page 44, is of a different opinion. For example, in my home the TV set connected to the aerial antenna receives more channels than the set hooked up to basic cable. The question, however, is what formwill it take? Will FTA continue to be OTA with a Wi-Fi type of broadcast technology, or will the TV broadcast frequencies be replaced by channeling the audiovisual signals on the Internet pipe?Naturally, both options are plausible, so that stations can monetize their frequencies by leasing a portion to other forms of communications, like Wi-Fi. Another hot debate is what form television will take in 2030 and if it will still be called “television” or just “video.” To me, this is a non-issue because what one calls it will not change what it will do. Let’s say that 15 years from now, audio and video electronic pulses will be inducted directly into our brain, completely bypassing our eyes and ears. What will “it” be called then? And what if the premise of American psychologist Barry Schwartz’s 2004 book, The Paradox of Choice: Why More is Less , will indeed prevail and consumers will opt for fewer choices? Predicting the future is really tricky because we tend to base our predictions on current or perceived technology and regulations. In 1860, a group of experts were called upon to predict the future of New York City in 100 years. The conclusion of their study was that 100 years later, New York City would no longer exist. The reasoningwas that if the growth of the population continued at the same rate, transporting people around the city would necessitate six million horses, and the manure generated by so many animals would engulf the city. The book Superfreakonomics , published in 2009 and inspired by the works of urbanist Eric Morris, reported that in 1880 the horse population of NYC reached 175,000, with each animal producing up to 13 kilos of manure per day (for a total of 2.3 million kilo and 151,000 liters of urine each day), filling up every possible city corner. By 1890, there were 200,000 horses in New York City. So, based on those assumptions, it isn’t surprising that the predictions made in 1860 were so apocalyptic. Those experts that gathered in New York City in 1860 did not take into consideration developments in transportation technology. They did not envision going from horse power to horsepower, which, 43 years later, in 1903, would see New York City with a subway system and 6,400 cars in circulation. Playing on American philosopher Willard Van Orman Quine’s 1948 article “On What There is,” it can be said that those experts in 1860 failed to figure out the thingamajig that wasn’t yet there. I’m sure that in the years inching toward 2030, executives in each sector of the industry will figure out who their competitors will be, and technology that today is both spearheading and hindering the digital revolution (like themultiple rights management systems) will find its mojo. Predicting the future based on too much technology did bring us wristband television 50 years too early and left flying cars in the sci-fi world, 98 years after being predicted. Or take the prediction of 3D television. Since 1935, it is still nowhere to be seen, except at TV trade shows. In this case, predictions were made using a mix of current, future and sci-fi technology, however, after 80 years it is nowhere close to practicality. This is reflected inEdoardo Fleischner’s prediction on page 54, where all kinds of flying car-type of innovation is expected to be a reality in 2030. Talking about the future of the Internet, analysts expect omnipresence in everyday reality. This is definitely true, but if current hacking by governments (Russia, China and the U.S.) continues, the World Wide Web will surely take another form. While geo-restrictions are noweasily bypassed, in the future countries may develop stronger walls, and with that all predictions based on current analysis will be horse manure. When it comes to the future of human health, By Dom Serafini October 2015 V I D E O A G E Ten Steps to 2030 Accuracy of Far-Sighted Predictions Is 90 Percent Mental, The Other Half Is Physical Dom Serafini is the editor of VideoAge and VideoAge Daily. He’s the author of eight books, including: 100 years of Research, 50 Years of Developments, 25 Years of Mass Media, and the Future of Television (1975); Television via Internet: A New Frontier (1999), and The Ten Commandments For The TV of The Future (2002), which was inspired by a White Paper he wrote for IBC 2001. Dom Serafini In 1860, a group of experts were called upon to predict the future of New York City in 100 years. The conclusion of their study was that 100 years later, New York City would no longer exist.