Video Age International October 2015

48 the same episode viewed at different times.” At this point in the interview, VideoAge wondered if niche television would increase or reduce fragmentation. This is because by increasing the TV universe to 1,000-plus channels, viewers tend to restrict their selections to a dozen or so TV networks. In addition, the ratings of most niche channels combined only reach small numbers, leaving the bulk of the viewers for the usual dozen, even if their large numbers are achieved with L7. Currie’s analysis was that “niche is the very definition of fragmentation” and that “there is not mass audience programming anymore (other than sports), but, since those usual dozen channels also own most of the niche channels, they can therefore bulk the audiences up and, by grouping all kind of audiences from all their channels, they will deliver the mass audience to advertisers.” He then concluded by stating, “Every type of technology out there now was developed 15 years ago,” meaning that technology to be used in 2030 is here today. R ating services will still be around in 2030, predicts media analyst and TV market researcher Jon E. Currie , who now runs Currie Communications. “The industry will still need someone to put viewership from all platforms together,” he said from his Palm Desert, CA office. However, Currie pointed out that AC Nielsen, today’s dominant rating service needs an “industry disrupter” to turn it from re-active to pro-active. “For example, out of home viewing is not measured: today we still cannot get that integrated measurement.” In Currie’s view, Nielsen serves the survival needs of the television industry, which is still the dominant medium and “the dominant medium always resists new media, and history can prove it. The movie industry resisted television, the studios resisted videocassettes, the record industry resisted the Internet, and so on.” But, will Internet interactivity eliminate the need for rating services? “We have to begin thinking of what a ‘rating service’ will look like in the future,” said Currie. “There will always be a need for metrics, but the metrics, their applications and their uses will change. Think of the transition from TV to online video. What do they have in common? They both need viewers. Someone looks at it, or consumes it in some way, yet the form of it is different. It is the same with ratings. The measurement of the merged media will be a different model, but still a measurement in some form.” So, how will the Internet improve and facilitate the gathering of ratings data? “This becomes the ROAT, or the ratings of all things, as in the IOT or Internet of Things. The technology is here, it just needs combining into one metric that makes sense for both the seller (producer, provider, etc.) and the buyer (agency, end client, etc.). Instead of ‘there were 150,000 uniques on YouTube and 250,000 18-49s on FOX, and 85,000 mobile users on iPhone, etc.,’ we’ll get ‘75,000 interested buyers of your new car who are female, make over $50,000 a year, live in apartments in the inner part of cities on the East Coast, are single, professional, have at least a college degree, shop at Macy’s, etc., and saw your message sometime today between 2pm and 3pm.’ We can do this now, it’s just putting it together and getting away from the current models,” Currie said. In the future rating services will no longer be counting heads, but will track viewers’ purchases and go beyond demographics and psychographics, toward what Currie calls laser- graphics. “Reaching the 18-to-34 doesn’t mean anything, since it can mean a lot of things,” he then pointed out that “the likely purchaser can be 23, 30 or 50 years old.” “Thismicro-targeting isalreadyused inpolitical campaigns, where dual messages — broad and narrow — are used, but broad messages are no longer effective,” said Currie. The television industry has to define what “mass audience” really is and how it can be obtained, says Currie. Currently, a critical mass is obtained by combining live audience plus those viewers who watch the same program within seven days (L7). In the future, the predominant VoD model (which in Currie’s opinion is not different from today’s L7) will change the definition of mass audience with an increased cut off time for serialized drama (e.g., 30 days) and a reduced time (e.g., only live) for major sporting events like the World Football (Soccer) Championship. “After all,” he commented, “who wants to see a sporting event a week later?” “In effect,” said Currie, “the metrics will be tailored to who receives the message, not according to how it is being transmitted. After all, who cares how it is transmitted? The data will include all platforms, and there will be different types of metrics for different types of programs. Plus, in the case of serialized drama, advertisers will be able to change their commercials within October 2015 V I D E O A G E Ten Steps to 2030 Laser-graphing TV Audiences: Rating Services Will Not Be Counting Heads Jon E. Currie “Personally, I don’t give a damn about public opinion, it’s my private opinion that runs this organization!” Jon E. Currie is a Ph. D. Major in Mass Communications Behavior and Research from Bowling Green State University, Ohio, who now runs Currie Communications, amarket research firm based in Palm Desert, CA. Previously, he was vice president Head of Business Development at Media Predict, Inc., responsible for sales and marketing effort of prediction market start-ups. Before that, CurrieheadedBusinessDevelopment for Satyam Market Research and Customer Analytics. He was also Regional Manager, Arbitron Ratings Television, responsible for the U.S. Pacific region. Currie started his career as Director of Research, at ASI Market Research, Los Angeles, CA, in 1981. In the future rating services will no longer be counting heads, but will track viewers’ purchases and go beyond demographics and psychographics.