Video Age International February-March 2016

6 Book Review March 2016 V I D E O A G E S uperforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction , co-written by U.S.-based Canadian economist Philip E. Tetlock and journalist Dan Gardner (340 pages, Crown Publishing, $28), is very much a follow-up to Tetlock’s 2005 book Expert Political Judgement . The book’s co-author, U.S.-Canadian journalist Dan Gardner, is the author of the 2011 book, Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail And Why We Believe Them Anyway . In that book, Tetlock illustrated 20 years of research assessing expert judgement, only to have the New York Times , the Wall Street Journal , and the Economist , among others, simplify his findings to the point where they were defined by the single now-famous claim that the vast majority of pundits are no better at making predictions than a “dart-throwing chimp.” To thedismayof the author, the chimpmetaphor was then picked up and reapplied to a number of fields; especially finance, where the old hat joke claims that a portfolio selected by a financial advisor, an index of stocks, and stocks chosen by the aforementioned chimpanzee throwing darts will have no significant deviation in returns. The forgotten corollary claimmade in Tetlock’s 2005 work is that although themajority of pundits can’t be depended on for accurate predictions, a few experts do consistently forecast better than the pack. Superforecasters are out there; they’re just few and far between. In this new book, Tetlock chooses to examine a small sample of superforecasters picked via the Good Judgment Project, an initiative spearheaded by Tetlock and his wife, Barbara Mellers, and supported by the U.S. federal government in which laypeople, united only by their interest in current affairs, make predictions on possible future events. Two percent of nearly 3,000 laypeople displayed an uncanny precision in their predictions. The book looks into what they do that sets them apart from the pack, what the pack does that stops them from making accurate predictions; and it’s all told through a long series of anecdotes, often recounting failed predictions, from which clear lessons and inferences are drawn. The anecdotes range from Microsoft’s underestimation of the success of the iPhone to the entire intelligence community’s failed assessment of Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction, all the way to probability assessments by a 19th century Prussian general. All anecdotes are fascinating. The superforecasters come from a variety of backgrounds. One is a retired IBM programmer. Another is a retired Department of Agriculture employee. One is a middle-aged former atmospheric research scientist from the University of Michigan forced on disability leave due to multiple sclerosis. The TV and film industry is represented among the book’s superforecasters by Joshua Frankel, an animator and filmmaker born in 1980,whodabbles in geopolitics and not the future of entertainment. All are intelligent (or at least well-read) people who spend significant amounts of time reading up on current events. All outperformed sample groups of analysts employed by major U.S. intelligence agencies. Many superforecasters have math and science backgrounds. Frankel attended the prestigious math-focused Stuyvesant High School in New York City. However, it is Tetlock who uses more math in finding the weighted average prediction of all predictors in the Good Judgment Project than nearly all Superforecasters use when making predictions. But they understand and know how to evaluate uncertainty. They are also willing to change their initial assessments once new information comes to light or new events unfold. Last but not least, superforcasters tend to assess questions as sums of their components, eventuating the probable courses of action taken by each factor and removing assessments from personal bias and assumptions. Superforecasting is an interesting read. However, it remains to be seen if Tetlock’s research will impact the thousands of public and private sector analysts that a few dozen well-read Superforcasters with a lot of time on their hands so handedly beat.  We’re left wondering if the authors could forecast the reaction of New York Times , the Wall Street Journal , and the Economist to their new book. YS Forecasters Replaced By Superforecasters. Failure Is Not Tolerated In This Field World The Next-Generation DTTV On U.S. Track (Continued from Page 4) T he first two public demonstrations of 4K over-the-air broadcasts using the ATSC 3.0 DTTV standard were held in the U.S. in early January 2016, during the annual CES Show in Las Vegas. Television receivers based on ATSC 3.0 showcased the flexibility of the next-generation digital terrestrial television broadcast standard now being finalized by the Advanced Television Systems Committee (ATSC). The U.S.-based ATSC is an international, non-profit organization developing voluntary standards for digital television. The ATSC’s 150-plus member organizations represent the broadcast, broadcast equipment, motion picture, consumer electronics, computer, cable, satellite, and semiconductor industries. “CES marks the beginning of an important new phase for ATSC 3.0 as manufacturers and broadcasters begin demonstrating products and services based on the core ATSC 3.0 volunteer standard adopted last year. The lion’s share of the standard has been completed and remaining items, like audio and interactivity, will be done in the months ahead. We’re on target to finalize the entire suite of ATSC 3.0 standards for next- gen television broadcasting this year,” said ATSC president Mark Richer. At the Las Vegas Convention Center, both LG Electronics and Samsung showed 4K displays powered by over-the-air signals from different Las Vegas broadcasters transmitting in dual or parallel standards (ATSC 1.0 and ATSC 3.0). Samsung, Sinclair Broadcast Group, ONE Media, Pearl TV and TeamCast demonstrated the broadcast and receiving capabilities of ATSC 3.0. The demonstration highlighted reception of 4K content using the next-generation TV standard in a live parallel transmission originating from a local Sinclair broadcast TV station to a TV set with an ATSC 3.0 receiver at the Samsung CES booth. LG showed 4K TV reception from Las Vegas Channel 18 KHMP-TV’s transmitter on Black Mountain, received for the first time on LG’s new ATSC 3.0-enabled 4K TV receivers at the Las Vegas Convention Center.